Regina Lúcia Sanches Malassisse

This study aimed to analyze the behavior of the price of agricultural land in the municipalities of Paraná for the period 1999-2010. Then, we started from the literature review of the main national and international studies on the subject, in which we identified the key determinants of the price of land as well as the methods used. We wove an overview of the evolution of these determinants in Paraná State, identifying the spatial distribution of such variables. In Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, we identified the formation of three large price clusters involving a belt from the west to the north. Armed with this analysis, we chose to estimate a model for the price of agricultural land through spatial data panel. In the estimates, it was found that statistically significant variables, which explain the price of agricultural land in the State of Paraná are the gross value of agricultural production, asset valuation, the total financing agriculture, the relationship municipal investment-income, the percentage of area the municipality planted with soybeans and the incorporation of spatial heterogeneity in land prices. The coefficient of determination was high, being above 84%, and indicated that the data presented greater intrapanel fit and all, and the spatial effects would be more intense in the city itself and in relation to the whole. As an indication for future research, it was found spatial convergence in the prices of land in the municipalities of Paraná for the years 1999 and 2010. In particular, the proposed model advanced in structural terms, with a view to incorporating variables collected for all 399 municipalities in the state of Paraná, in order to find appropriate data. In addition, it advanced in terms of methodology in estimating data via the influence of the effects of spatiality on the price of agricultural land to all municipalities in the State of Paraná panels, highlighting the importance of the location and neighborhood in the determination of such price.